Admission Chances: How We Predict Your Fit and How to Get Yours

One of the most common questions we get is: "What are my real chances at HBS? At Wharton? At Stanford?" At Admit Architect, we don't guess. We run a structured evaluation that combines your profile, narrative strength, test scores, and work experience against each school's class profile - and we show you the result right on your dashboard.

How You Get Your Prediction

Once you have at least one application in your account, the Admission Chances section appears on your dashboard. Hit Evaluate my chances and Archer:

1. Pulls your profile - Resume, Spine Interview answers, and any essays or context you have added

2. Scores five factors - Narrative (35%), GMAT/GRE (25%), Work Experience (20%), Education (10%), and Demographics (10%)

3. Compares you to each school - We use published class profiles and selectivity so the model is school-specific

4. Assigns a band - Reach, Target, or Safety, plus an overall score (0-100) and a short explanation

5. Suggests improvements - Top levers (e.g. "Strengthen narrative clarity") with high/medium/low impact

The evaluation is cached so you can revisit it anytime. Re-run it after updating your narrative or test scores to see how your picture changes.

Five Sample Applications and Their Predictions

Below are five illustrative profiles (names and details anonymized) and the kind of output Archer produces. These are not real users - they are sample personas we use to show how prediction works across different profiles.

Sample 1: Finance, High GMAT, Strong Narrative

• Profile: 3 years investment banking, 760 GMAT, Ivy undergrad, completed Spine Interview with clear leadership arc
• HBS: 58 - Reach. "Strong quant profile; narrative could better distinguish you from typical finance applicants."
• Wharton: 72 - Target. "Finance background aligns well; work experience and goals are coherent."
• Stanford GSB: 48 - Reach. "Competitive stats; 'What Matters Most' depth will be critical differentiator."
• Columbia: 78 - Safety. "Strong fit for CBS finance and NYC focus; narrative supports goals."

Sample 2: Tech PM, Good Stats, Weaker Narrative

• Profile: 4 years product management at FAANG, 730 GMAT, state school, Spine Interview incomplete
• HBS: 52 - Reach. "Work experience is a plus; narrative and introspection need development."
• Wharton: 65 - Target. "Tech PM is a good story for Wharton; tighten career goals and narrative spine."
• MIT Sloan: 68 - Target. "Cover letter and video will matter; complete your narrative foundation first."
• Berkeley Haas: 74 - Safety. "Tech and product background fits Haas; narrative clarity would strengthen."

Sample 3: Nonprofit, Lower GMAT, Strong Narrative

• Profile: 5 years in education nonprofit, 690 GMAT, liberal arts college, very strong Spine Interview
• Stanford GSB: 62 - Reach. "Narrative and impact story are differentiators; test score is below median."
• Yale SOM: 71 - Target. "Mission and community fit SOM well; narrative carries the application."
• Kellogg: 69 - Target. "Values-based essay is a strength; consider retaking GMAT for reach schools."
• Tuck: 76 - Safety. "Community and leadership narrative align with Tuck; profile is competitive."

Sample 4: Consulting, Strong Across the Board

• Profile: 3 years MBB, 750 GMAT, top undergrad, complete narrative and clear goals
• HBS: 68 - Target. "Consulting is common; narrative and leadership examples set you apart."
• Wharton: 74 - Target. "Strong overall fit; analytics and leadership both present."
• Booth: 76 - Safety. "Analytical background and narrative coherence make you a solid fit."
• Kellogg: 78 - Safety. "Collaborative leadership and values alignment; strong safety."

Sample 5: Career Changer, Unique Profile

• Profile: Former teacher, 2 years in ed-tech startup, 710 GMAT, strong "distance traveled" narrative
• Stanford GSB: 54 - Reach. "Unique path is an asset; test score and years of experience are headwinds."
• Haas: 70 - Target. "Distance traveled and mission fit Haas well; narrative is a strength."
• Stern: 72 - Target. "NYC and tech/impact angle work; story stands out."
• Ross: 75 - Safety. "Action-based leadership and narrative fit; good safety option."

What the Bands Mean

• Reach: Competitive but possible; often below median on one or more factors. Focus on narrative and fit.
• Target: You are in range; execution on essays and recommendations will matter most.
• Safety: Strong fit on paper; apply with confidence but still put full effort into the application.

Scores are not guarantees - they are estimates based on the same factors admissions committees weigh. Use them to prioritize where to invest time and to identify which levers (narrative, test retake, work story) will move the needle most.

Get Your Own Prediction

Add a school to your applications, complete your profile and (ideally) your Spine Interview, then open your dashboard and run Evaluate my chances. You will see your scores, bands, factor breakdown, and top improvements for every school you have applied to.